Feb 17 โ€ข JULIUS ATULINDE

Carbon Decoupling Without Material Decoupling: Why the Green Economy Must Address the Circularity Gap

We may be ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด (๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ) ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐˜๐—ต in parts of the world and in some periods ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐˜๐—ต at the global level, as indicated by declining circularity. The Circularity Gap Reports indicate that the share of secondary materials in the global economy dropped from ๐Ÿต.๐Ÿญ% (๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿด) to ๐Ÿฒ.๐Ÿต% (๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ) of 106 billion tonnes of materials used annually coming from recycled sources. Meanwhile, ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™œ๐™ง๐™š๐™š๐™ฃ ๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™ž๐™จ ๐™จ๐™˜๐™–๐™ก๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™›๐™–๐™จ๐™ฉ. A WEFโ€“BCG (2025) report the ๐™œ๐™ง๐™š๐™š๐™ฃ ๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ค๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™๐™–๐™จ ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ง๐™ฅ๐™–๐™จ๐™จ๐™š๐™™ $5 ๐™ฉ๐™ง๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ and is projected to exceed $7 trillion annually by 2030.
๐‘พ๐’‰๐’š ๐’ƒ๐’๐’•๐’‰ ๐’•๐’“๐’†๐’๐’…๐’” ๐’„๐’‚๐’ ๐’„๐’๐’†๐’™๐’Š๐’”๐’•:

๐—”. โ€œ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐˜๐—ตโ€ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€
Most green-economy growth to date is driven by ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป (renewables, electrification, EV supply chains, grids).
These sectors can grow quickly ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด total global material throughputโ€”especially because the build-out phase is infrastructure-heavy (steel, cement, copper, critical minerals). This results in ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€, but also ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ผ๐—บ๐˜†, which pushes the circularity share down unless secondary supply rises even faster.
๐—•. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜†๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ-๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด
The circularity metric is a ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ (secondary inputs / total inputs). If total inputs rise strongly, circularity can fall ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ณ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜†๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐—น๐˜‚๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒโ€”exactly what the 2025 update highlights (โ€œdespite growing recyclingโ€).
๐—–. ๐—ช๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด, ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€
Energy-system evidence increasingly supports ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐˜๐—ต ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—š๐——๐—ฃ ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐˜๐—ต at the global level in some years (and absolute decoupling in some economies), but this ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด. The IEA reports that emissions growth was lower than global GDP growth in its Global Energy Review 2025 analysis, signalling decoupling dynamics on the carbon side. Circularity statistics, meanwhile, show materials are not yet being reduced or recirculated at the required scale.

๐‘ป๐’‰๐’†๐’“๐’†๐’‡๐’๐’“๐’†
, if the green economy is to translate into system-wide sustainability, the growth engine must be paired with ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€: life extension, reuse models, secondary materials markets, and product rules that shift demand away from virgin inputsโ€”๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ป-๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐˜†-๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ.
RELATED UPDATE

Green Economy maintains a positive outlook โ€“ WEF & BCG 2025 Annual report